摩根斯坦利：一线城市购房情绪恶化

这一篇文章颇具外资报告的特色，那就是做草根调研。其实很多数据是公开渠道查不到的，或者说查到的也是不靠谱的，在房价下行时期愿意沉下心去发一篇篇调研问卷，是非常必要的。最典型的案例，就是当年浑水做空瑞幸，浑水当年做了大量草根调研然后发现财务造假。由于我国的券商大多是服务性质，所以不具备这种能力，因此我们需要阅读外资报告获得一些信息的补充。 Willingness on home purchases remains low.Out of all respondents, 48% were likely to purchase property in the future (vs. 51% in our July survey), the lowest since our survey started in 3Q23. Only 15% were "extremely likely" to purchase (vs. 16% in the July survey), with 2% anticipating that their purchase will occur over the next 12 months, 5% over the next two to three years, and another 5% beyond four years.购房意愿仍然偏低。在所有受访者中，48%的人未来有可能购房（相比之下，7月份调查的这一比例为51%），这是自2023年第三季度我们开始调查以来的最低比例。仅有15%的人“极有可能”购房（相比之下，7月份调查的这一比例为16%），2%的人预计未来12个月内会购房，5%的人预计未来两到三年内会购房，另有5%的人预计四年后才会购房。 个人解析：买涨不买跌在这里体现得淋漓尽致，最近半年房价恶化后，房子是个“贬值”的资产正在深入人心。从一线城市永不跌，到核心区永不跌，到豪宅永不跌，一线城市居民的房地产信仰被逐渐击溃。虽然我22年就开始呼吁粉丝卖掉一线的房产（其他城市房产呼吁时间更早），但是由于个人认知和投资眼光的局限性，如果过于聚焦于过去的价格走势，想通过过去的经验预测未来，那就逃不了被收割的命运。 Consumer outlook on housing prices worsened notably in October. A net 42% (vs. 33% in July) of potential homebuyers ("extremely likely" homebuyers) are anticipating home prices to fall rather than rise over the next 12 months. Sentiment in higher-tier cities is even weaker. Tier 1 cities show much weaker confidence, with a net 67% anticipating housing prices to fall (vs. 50% in July). Tier 2 cities had a net 45% in October (vs. 23% in July), and lower tiers had a net 30% in October (vs. 34% in July).10月份，消费者对房价的预期显著恶化。净42%（7月份为33%）的潜在购房者（“极有可能”购房者）预计未来12个月房价会下跌而非上涨。一线城市的情绪更为低迷。一线城市的信心明显减弱，净67%的受访者预计房价会下跌（7月份为50%）。10月份，二线城市的净预期为45%（7月份为23%），而低线城市10月份的净预期为30%（7月份为34%）。 个人解析：从数据来看，一线城市的购房者和房东情绪似乎有崩溃的迹象。炒股的朋友都知道，一旦下跌的市场共识形成，马上就会迎来一波下杀。目前市场是放量下跌，还不算最差的阶段，总好过缩量下跌，没有流动性。不过我觉得作为一线城市的房子，应该不至于丧失流动性，现在二三线城市的房子倒是迎来了流动性危机，市场根本没有增量资金，这个情况下显然没法谈触底。 The share of homeowners desperate to sell remained high in our October survey. Out of all the potential home sellers, 41% were likely to sell within the next six months (vs. 44% in July), with 12% already having listed th